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Strategies & Market Trends : IPO and Other Stock Plays

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From: MLD388/9/2007 8:01:41 PM
   of 13331
 
Recent IPO, LLWN, hit hard today
(on earnings and forward forecast)

LLWN : unlock is 12/4/07
ipohome.com

I thought an IPO wingedV was forming or maybe a basic double bottom, but need to watch the price action to see if the fall levels off over the next day or so.
bigcharts.marketwatch.com

LLWN ipo info : on 6/7/07 offered 16.0 mm @ $15
...pending patent infringement case brought on by MIT and Akamai...
ipohome.com
First Day Close = $22.18
Return from IPO = - 40.1% (negative)

Limelight Networks (LLNW) ---- provides digital content for traditional and emerging media companies
thestreet.com
...was one of the biggest winners, soaring 47% to $22.05 after its initial public offering. The Tempe, Ariz., network-services company priced 16 million shares at $15...

Limelight Networks (LLNW) : report and has 3 chili pepper rating ie short-term growth
123jump.com

IPOhome's featured IPO:
ipohome.com
starts off:
...With the proliferation of broadband Internet access, the popularity of rich media content websites like YouTube and MySpace have exploded. As a result, these bandwidth-hungry applications have caused Internet traffic to surge more than 75% per year since 2003. To handle the cumbersome needs of distributing content, all but the largest web players have turned to content delivery networks, or CDNs, which store content at multiple networks throughout the world closer to end-users, thereby reducing delivery time and improving the user experience. To this end, Limelight Networks was founded in 2001 to build a CDN focused specifically on rich media, the faster growing piece of the market. Following a 2006 investment by Goldman Sachs, Limelight invested heavily in building out its network capacity and developing a concerted sales effort, which have helped it become the #2 player in the rapidly growing market....
includes:
Competitive CDNs
...Given the rapid growth and attractive profitability of the sector, it is not surprising that the CDN space is intensely competitive. Limelight is currently the second largest player behind Akamai (AKAM), which is about six times larger in terms of revenue. Limelight believes that it and Akamai are well ahead of a host of other competitors, including Level 3 (acquired Digital Island, SAVVIS’s CDN business) and Internap (acquired VitalStream)....
and
Patent Problems
...In addition to the competitive issues, the biggest overhang on Limelight’s business is a pending patent infringement case brought on by MIT and Akamai last June. Akamai has claimed patent infringement in this sector twice before, both of which were in the same court with the same judge as the Limelight dispute will be. One case resulted in an enjoinment against a firm, which subsequently developed a work around, and the other was acquired by Akamai before the conclusion of the case. Given the limited details available, it is difficult to pick a side on this major issue, but we note that worse case scenarios could include license costs or even a permanent enjoinment. The trial is expected to go to court in 2008 and will cost the firm approximately $8 million in legal costs....
and
Growth Trumps Risks
...While there are other issues with the deal, including the checkered pasts of two of its co-founders, and we do not want to underestimate the seriousness of the litigation with Akamai, we expect the near-term results out of Limelight to be very robust. With no resolution to the trial in the immediate future, we believe investors will be attracted to the firm’s strong fundamentals and discounted valuation relative to Akamai. Therefore, we expect a very solid debut out of Limelight, which makes it our Featured IPO of the Week....
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