Mark, (Get a cup of coffee this is a long post) I think you hit on the most important point of all. That the levels of opt metals are far beyond most commerical mines. As was already mentioned, Naxos HAS many holes drilled and tested so the likelyhood of repeated results in new holes is greatly increased.
It is also important to remember that the type of deposit here is almost like a huge sedimentary rock deposit. It is in fact sediment deposited into the lakebed over millions of years that is being tested. We are NOT looking at veins or spots of metals. Naxos is taking a slice or a cross section so to speak of what these many layers over the lakebed hold.
If you talk to a geologist (which I did) and ask about the nature of this deposit, it is highly UNlikely that the deposit changes dramatically around the lakebed.
Think about it this way, have you ever seen river delta areas from the sky? The river keeps pushing silt and its content down the river until it comes to a spot where the water slows enough or gets shallow enough to drop the suspended particles. The content of the silt is very homogeneous, as you can tell from color variations from the sky. If Franklin Lake was the result of a river being damned up from volcanic activity in a valley, which geologic reports seem to confirm, then the entire lakebed would be filled up with fairly homogeneous silt and the contained metals throughout. Yes there may be areas of higher concentrations, but overall it would be very similar.
For the above reason, unlike a hard rock mine stock, one drill hole CAN mean quite a bit, at the very least alot MORE than in a hard rock mine where you just may have hit one vein or missed a vein for that matter. Until a hard rock area is property drilled, you can't even guess how far the veins go or how big they are.
As a result, the BD COC hole numbers CAN have a great impact if even one big institution or one major sees this as the writing on the wall. Then comes the contest about who blinks first. How much proof do you want before you control a big chunk of Naxos as the best price possible. Do you wait until it is clear to EVERYONE IN THE WORLD? Then the price could be in the hundreds very quickly. Do you wait until it is clear to some industry insiders only? Well that step is just a short step in front of the "everyone knows" scenerio.
Mark, I agree that this week for news is unlikely. Even if the hole is complete by Thursday, results by Friday is wildly ambitious considering the track record. That is not a criticism, just the experience with Naxos.
Whenever the news comes out, I think we will easily break $10 primarily because of the following:
* Naxos has been explaining and selling its story to well placed institutions for some time now and they (the institutions as well as some of the majors) understand the potential
* The nature of the deposit is NOT like vein mining in hard rock and a slice out of the lakebed does mean quite a bit
* Previous testing on non COC material using older methods will be considered, at least to some degree, repeatable
* The contract, if and when announced, with Mr. Johnson will put an interesting spin on the future recovery of this type of deposit
* The levels of recovery, if anywhere near the previous SRK numbers, will make almost ANY method clearly economical and wildly profitable
* The Platinum metals have significant industrial applications and will be more recession proof than a "gold only" mine
* There will be a Mexican standoff (no disrespect to our southern neighbors) for who gets in with major stakes in Naxos BEFORE the big price war and therefor, some may NOT want to wait too long and too much proof is available for all to see.
* There is NO, and I mean NO corresponding analogy to Bre-X. If I have to explain that to anyone, it is not worth taking the time here.
I think those are enough reasons why Naxos may fare very well with one hole complete. Five holes will be better and 100 is even better. It is still a long way until we get to three digits, but we will be on a collision course with those prices.
Mark, all and all, I don't care what the price does this week. I am in it for the long hall and have full confidence that the results will be very close to the SRK hole. I don't think that they would have done a complete hole if things were not going well. They would have dropped back and punted (regrouped and started on a new method and therefor NOT started a deal with Johnson) if the testing was NOT going well.
I just wish this thing would get started already!!!!!!!!!!!
P.S. I will be in your area next week. Likely Monday or Tuesday evening. Please let me know if you have time for a celebration drink. Because I am SOOOOO SUUUUURRRE that the results will be out by then!
Regards,
Tom F. |
