Mark - Please don't gage ADSL evolution by one Author, or one persons opinion.
22 months ago, many said ADSL is a speculative technology. Beginning next year ADSL begins nation-wide deployments. Granted it may not be mass deployments at first. But when companies like GTE mention numbers like 500,000 lines, you know things are still running at a fast pace.
Now IMHO.....Some view the huge mergers in the Networking and Telco industries that are taking place a direct result of the Deregulation Act 1996. I'll give the Act some of the credit. Though the availability to provide bandwidth to the masses, working and Surfing at home with the speed of a LAN, is what I saw at the heart of future mergers in February 96, shortly after investing in ADSL.
At that time I told my wife and many others, you will not believe the amount and size of the mergers that will take place. Then it started with the Networkers, and then on to the Telco's of the world. If you think the latest bid on MCI from WorldCom is big. Wait until you hear the numbers ATT will be willing to spend to buy GTE! Easy for you to estimate. Take GTE's total # of shares times the share price.
Now with all the immensity of the Network/Telco Tectonic Plate Shift, it would not phase me a bit to see Lucent make a bid on Cisco. "I say--I say--I say that's a tip son!" ... Foghorn DMThorn...
ADSL will be hitting the market at a price point affordable to be a consumer technology from the start. The consumer once he gets his hands on one, will never let go. As evident by comments from the GTE/
MSFT trial.
ADSL bypasses the normal routine of building Xtechnology systems for large companies, then as the cost of building X technology comes down by creating larger and larger productions, the price eventually comes down to the consumer level.
The pace at which ADSL will cover the MODEM Industry, is proportional to how fast DSLAMS will be deployled in Telco Company Offices.
Otherwise this indusrty would move as fast as the CDROM, once CDROM was finally brought down to the consumer price level. By the end of 1998 ADSL will be a $500. or below, end-to-end soultion.
So, as I quoted here in FEB 97, when Amati introduced Allegro, the first ADSL DSLAM, "It's a DSLAM Race"
ADSL by virtue of providing a commodity that everyone on the I-Net not only wants BANDWIDTH, but they are screaming for it "I Want My DMT" gives ADSL the ability to move rather quickly, much faster than so called analyst's were saying only 18 months ago. Their number of lines installed by 2000 - 2005 estimates, increases every 6 months.
Business needs the bandwidth commodity too! But that's a story by itself. At least we, the consumer, do not have to wait for the ADSL business side of the story to complete, before we the consumer, get the latest and greatest technology.
JW@KSC |
