Real Economy still booming ? Here are excerpts from an August 6 note for IC Insights about Semiconductor Fab use in Q4 of 2007 -
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icinsights.com
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August 6, 2007
IC Insights Sends "ALERT" to IC Foundry Customers!
Major IC foundries may be out of capacity in 4Q07 and early 2008
Using data compiled from current foundry company guidance for 3Q07 and IC Insights' shipment and capacity forecasts for 4Q07, the soon-to-be-released August Update to The McClean Report alerts IC foundry customers about a possible shortfall of capacity at the major foundries by the end of 2007 and into 2008. As shown in Figure 1, the “Big 4” IC foundries (i.e., TSMC, UMC, SMIC, and Chartered) are forecast to go from operating, in total, at a capacity utilization rate of only 78.5% in 1Q07 to 97.5% in 4Q07! It should also be noted that the Big 4 foundries currently hold almost three-fourths of the total worldwide pure-play foundry capacity and 99% of the =90nm capacity.
IC Insights' August Update states: "Given the remarkable turnaround in the Big 4's capacity utilization during the first eight months of this year, IC foundry customers are strongly encouraged to begin attempting to secure their 4Q07 and 2008 capacity needs as soon as possible."
The largest foundry in the world, TSMC, is forecast to jump from a capacity utilization rate of 83% in 1Q07 to 100% in 4Q07. UMC, the second largest pure-play foundry, is encountering an even more dramatic turnaround, going from a capacity utilization rate of only 70% in 1Q07 to an expected 4Q07 utilization rate of 95%!
SMIC, the large China-based foundry, has significantly cut its capital spending over the past three years. The $720 million in capital expenditures planned by SMIC in 2007 are less than 40% of what it spent three years earlier in 2004—$1.84 billion. As a result, with its shipments starting to heat up, SMIC is also expected to have a capacity utilization rate of over 90% in 4Q07. |
