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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 231.80+1.7%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST
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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (238648)8/12/2007 7:12:47 AM
From: pirasa2Read Replies (3) of 275872
 
Numbers are your friend. Use the free scientific calculator that Bill Gates so generously supplies with this Windows shit. When I see a post that just says "that can't be doable, neener neener neener, I win" I tend to get inquisitive and resort to this calculator.

Sep 10 is when Barc comes out. Shipments will follow immediately. That means Barc wafers started at around 6/10. So AMD has 16 weeks of wafer starts (3 in Q2, 13 in Q4) to supply three weeks of Q3 and 13 weeks of Q4.

Here is one set of assumptions that nets me 1M chips in Q4. Feel free to strike them down with your classic "can't be done"s:

- 200 WSPW initially, increasing by 30 WS per week linearly.
- 60% yield (130 KGDs) initially, improving linearly to 80% yield at the end of 16 weeks.

These give me 80K for launch in September and roughly 1M to sell in Q4.

If priced right, they will move. In addition to new machine sales in Q4, there are several million Barc compatible server CPU slots and several tens of millions of Phenom compatible desktop CPU slots out there.

Note that 200 WSPW is about 3% of the theoretical max capacity of fab 36 and probably about 5%, certainly less than 10%, of its current actual capacity.
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