Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 220.58

+5.0%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tim Luke who wrote (16587)	10/7/1997 3:16:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	of 61433

If business is bad now don't you think it will carry over into next QT? Please don't get me wrong in the long asnd will overcome all this but it is going to take atleast 4-6 months. Tim, This may sound like symantics but business is not really bad. The quarter was terrible but mostly due to Ascend "stumbling" during execution. Rockwell helped them stuble too. Acend is reliant upon Rockwell for their DSP chips. There is no way they are going to license x2 from COMS and use TI. Rockwell was being polite, exaggerated their time to market on properly operating 56K flex chips. Ascend in the meantime is trying to place cards int heir TNT with these chips. Ascend has two problems. One is the Rockwell chips were buggy and secondly, Ascend had software problems of their own with the TNT. No one wants to buy a non relable RAC. Many of the first TNTs were returned for replacement. This occured with a local dial-up ISP. Finally, Ascend fixed the software problems for the TNTs to run with US ROBCs. The fix was still not perfect. The Rockwell chips were not perfect either. In the meantime, the software to run the TNT in Europe is different and Ascend had problems there too. By the time Ascend fixed the software for Europe, the quater was a good part over and many people had been on vacation. Bottom ine is very little ordering. The question remains does the TNT still have software problems and does the Rockwell chips have problems of their own? If not, there is pent up demand for more TNTs, there has and still is a need for more WAN backbone which will account for the Cascade division producing 10% above target. The above questions are not answered to my satisfaction so I would be amiss to go out on a limb and state with close to certainty quarter 4 will be good. Chances are likely theses problems are fixed or will be within a week. The demand is there although Europe and Japan are not investing as much of their GDP into IP as the US. There is still pleanty of market out there so if Ascend has a large backlog, this quarter could be excellent. Thursday will tell. These are my opinions from what I have read, what I have emailed to people in other countries and in the US that are customers of Ascend and some pure speculation on my part. I would not recommend anyone base their investments on my speculation but I have now taken the largest position I have ever taken in any company in Ascend but gave myself to March for the market to perceive Ascend as a buy in the event there is still fear about quarter 4. Glenn

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