FinallyThere, BPZ Energy (BZP) -- My bullishness about this company was severely shaken as of the close of trading on 7/31. Since then (and before the opening of trading yesterday) the stock price had recovered a bit, on something like 3.2 M shares, a much higher than normal amount of volume for this stock for that period of time. Then yesterday the stock gives up a big piece of the recovery, but on a relatively small amount of shares of volume, under 0.2 M. Its hard for me to be bearish on the stock given what has happened with the trading so far this month. I'm not exactly a "raging bull" about it yet, but some of my bullishness has now been restored.
After the market closed on 7/31 Subash Chandra, the only analyst following BPZ, put out the following email:
BPZ Energy (BZP, $4.41, Buy, PT $8, Mkt cap $326 mm)
We know of no reason for the late-day collapse in the shares on heavy
volume. Drilling of the 3rd well, the 14-D, in the Corvina program remains
on-track for a mid-August TD of 7,750 feet. Final test results should be
available by late August/early September. Our $8 PT is based on 9 million
barrel oil discovery and 210 bcf of recoverable gas.
14-D well spud on June 20. Should take 60 days to reach total depth
and 2-3 weeks to test. Final results on-track for late August.
Well is drilling in structurally superior position to confirm the oil
discovery in the initial well, and delineate the natural gas reserves
than the disappointing 16-X re-completion
The initial well, the 21-XD, tested 5,900 bopd and 60 mmcf/d of
natural gas; 16-X tested 20 mmcf/d of gas
Subash Chandra, CFA
Managing Director
Jefferies & Company
520 Madison Avenue, 13th Floor
New York NY 10022
I have a great degree of respect for Subash; the fact that he has the guts to stick with this stock even though its price has come down so hard says a lot.
Rumors are flying around that the 14D well is still right on schedule (if not slightly ahead) and they have already set final casing. Assuming they have learned how to do a cement job on these wells, at least now we won't have long to see some definitive news on this well. I am determined to hold through this news. |
