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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: GST who wrote (85029)8/14/2007 7:07:17 PM
From: regli  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
The Yen is a fickle beast. Having played the YEN extensively in the 2003 - 2004 time frame, one never knows when the BOJ will intervene.

BOJ interventions are quite deadly and Japan proved in 2003/2004 that they are willing to go the extra mile, i.e. Yen 35 trillion in a little more than a year. "The great intervention" worked quite well and any time the BOJ or the Treasury announces vigilance regarding the Yen a few FOREX traders' knees wobble.

I therefore don't consider Yen appreciation a surefire bet though in the present climate the BOJ could suddenly be overwhelmed. However, given the teetering Japanese economy, IMO if the Yen appreciates significantly, intervention is a certainty (112 at the latest?).

I'd much rather play the Swiss Franc instead for similar reasons where the chance of CB intervention is much lower and where there is no chance at all of Japanese style monumental intervention.
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