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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (148084)	8/15/2007 1:29:20 AM
From: GST	of 209892

90% down days are indeed rare -- but we are in completely uncharted waters here. I would not be surprised to see a dozen 90% down days between here and the end of October. The selling pressure is set to mount as margin calls for average investors get piled on top of margin calls for hedge funds, and as withdrawals from funds surge as untested derivative strategies become tragically unstable. All this is shaping up while bankruptcies soar, private equity buyouts die and we slip into recession. Most of this will be increasingly obvious over the next few months. The lack of fear -- real fear -- is still widespread and misplaced. It is time to be afraid -- because there is something out there to be afraid of and that something is going to eat your lunch if you are not careful. I would be very surprised if we do not see another 20-30% come out of the stock market before we have anything like a "bottom".

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