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Technology Stocks : 2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud
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To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (242)10/7/1997 4:08:00 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell   of 1361
 
So I ask again, how much should one pay for two or three years of earnings, followed by nothing?

Sid, I'm sure you recall that Nightline started as temporary program about that Iranian hostage crisis. And, as was mentioned here, Bill Gates' DOS product was supposed to be a temporary solution until IBM replaced it with its own home-grown solution. The point is, people/companies that are smart enough to exploit a niche are often times smart enough to diversify and continue to thrive.

As in any burgeoning industry, there will be winners and losers. In the short run (pre-2000), I believe there will be many winners since I believe the Y2K problem is real and very costly to fix. In the long run (post 2000), we will see the weak fold and the strong thrive with huge cash reserves. The rest will either merge with the strong or also just hang it up (wealthy), IMO.

The question the market is trying to determine now is, who will the "winners" be. Until this question is "answered", we'll continue to see rampant speculation and volatile stock prices. The question then boils down to: do you want to go long the strong, or short the weak? If you think scam companies are overvalued now, wait until the "average" investor gets sucked into this sector! All it takes is some mainstream publicity and... well, just don't be caught short, even with scams!

- Jeff
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