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Gold/Mining/Energy : VLO: Valero Energy Corp.
VLO 179.19+2.0%Nov 10 3:59 PM EST
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From: Dennis Roth8/15/2007 9:07:51 PM
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Bought back into VLO today at $63.75. I already feel 'buyers remorse'. I had originally bought VLO for $50.05 in September 2006 intending it to be a LTBH but it ran up so fast this spring on the unusually high refining margins in the first half of the year that I became worried that the fast money that was running into the stock would run out just as fast when refining margins declined. I sold it for $73.19 on June 12th as I saw refining margins erode and I didn't want to ride it all the way back down. I didn't sell it nearer to the peak in part because it took a while to change my thinking about it from being a long term hold to trying to protect my short term profit. At the time I sold it, I figured I could buy it back in September during the traditional shoulder season slump and after the refining margins bottomed out. It looks like the September slump is coming early this year, what with the hedgies stuck with all their illiquid CDO derivatives and needing to raise cash for redemptions. I missed buying it back earlier this month on Aug 6th by a few pennies by setting my limit price too low. Now, of course I'm afraid I paid too much too soon and it will drop to $50 in September. Oh well, I'm back in the same position I was in before I sold in June but I skipped $9.44 a share of the slide down.

Also picked up some TSO today.

Here's a chart of Refining Margins.
oilintel.com
Have we put in a bottom or will we start another leg down? Who knows?
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