Angelo,
Do some due diligence and understand where the new, big marketing push is being geared to. The mass market of consumers is their target, and many of those hopefully new customers shop in retail stores. That's why I am concerned with a current lack of visibility in these outlets. Of course Adobe's great products are selling well in the professional/savvy marketing channels. That's always been their strength, but now they want mom and pop PC users, and are spending mucho dinero to target them with advertising. Without proper distribution, I feel their efforts will fall short of expectations.
In regards to opting for safety on the sidelines...since when are missed opportunities considered losses? I've made good money on ADBE in the last year, and have been very bullish on their valuations, but I see more problems on the horizon than I did earlier, and would like some of the issues to resolve themselves. Perhaps the market has properly discounted them, but if not...? Why do so many on SI get emotional when a lack of consensus arises? Differing viewpoints are what make markets.
Take comfort in the solice of your tech guru's teachings, but don't start crying if the charts don't do what you want them to. TA is a tool, and often a self fulfilling prophesy, but not a forgone conclusion. Chart reading has been around for along time, and I've never met a rich 100% technician...
Many Happy returns,
Peter Shaw |
