2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud Message Board

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Technology Stocks : 2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud

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To: Done, gone. who wrote (238)	10/7/1997 5:35:00 PM
From: White Shoes	of 1361

You have posted a lot of so-called facts. You simply don't have a knack for discussing relevant facts. Any idiot can post a link. How these links are supposed to justify P/E ratios of 80+ for the year 1998 (and these estimates could be optimistic, given the financial legerdemain which is common to stock promotions, putting all the big numbers up front before pulling the rug out) is beyond me, but perhaps you can explain. Here I refer to VIAS. It is interesting to me that as part of VIAS's recent secondary share offering at $54, a large chunk of the shares were sold by "selling shareholders". Obviously they are getting out while the getting is good. For a verifiable FACT I suggest you read Viasoft's next financial statement. They are supposed to be one of the best of the bunch...and do get plenty of Y2K work. Use investment principles and try to justify the valuation. Just remember that their best years will be behind them very soon. You act as if it doesn't matter that many of the smaller companies are promoted heavily by slick con artists & shady financing deals. You say they'll make "tons of money" without seeming to worry when they pursue dilutive acquistions or sell lots of extra stock at the height of the speculative frenzy. I am wary of trading 'facts' with you because your idea of a fact is that the sky is falling and noted experts say that lots of money will be spent fixing the Y2K problem. Again, if it's going to be that way, let's turn to that massive 2000-2050 car problem. I know I'll be buying a new car in a couple of years, and many of my greybeard friends in the auto industry say that their companies are getting a lot of business. The problem with your evidence is that it's too general: "the Y2K fix is big business". Internet Commerce and smart cards are supposed to be big, too, and many little scam companies have made killings in the stock market there, too. To invest in this future, you will have to buy Microsoft or Hewlett Packard shares. Let's face it, your investing methodology--identifying future needs and trying to profit from them before everyone else jumps on the bandwagon (do you really think you are such a damn visionary?)--(1)has a questionable track record and (2) stock promoteres know you are thinking this way and will go out of their way to print up stock certificates with your name on them...as many as you want. That is why in a GENERAL sense Bill Wexler has the right idea in pointing out how this "need" is being created by a lot of snake oil salesmen. Better we focus on the financials of the companies involved. I suggest scrutiny of VIAS's upcoming earnings report. As for some of the smaller Y2K companies which are in worse financial condition than VIAS, it is 99% certain that their overinflated share prices will crash, in many cases to zero.

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