SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Real Man who wrote (67787)8/19/2007 11:33:13 AM
From: ballsschweaty  Read Replies (4) of 116555
 
It seems to be a consensus that a U.S. recession and drop in interest rates is dollar negative. I'm not sure it's that simple. If we are going into a recession, it's because money/credit growth has slowed dramatically. The enormous outstanding U.S. dollar denominated debt is a like a big margin call on U.S. dollars. There's actually a big shortage of U.S. dollars relative to outstanding debts.

The last 4 years have resulted in strong money/credit growth, strong nominal gdp growth, weaker dollar, higher gold/commmodities, higher stocks.

If money/credit growth slows or contracts, I expect the opposite effects as we've seen over the past 4 years. That means stronger dollar, weaker gold, lower stock prices.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News