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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD

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To: koan who wrote (88989)	8/20/2007 12:11:22 AM
From: russet	Read Replies (2) of 313616

One very important question you want an answer to is how much base metal China imports, goes to production of goods and manufacturing, processing and transport facilities for export, and how much is just for domestic construction and manufacturing for domestic consumption. These numbers are difficult to get a handle on. Much of the construction in Chinese cities is not just for export production facilities, but to house and service the workers flooding in from the countryside to work in the export production plants. The Chinese economy is highly leveraged to exporting. The Chinese economy is also centrally controlled. Decisions made by bureaucrats are not necessarily sound economic ones. A world recession, even a short small one could result in enormous overcapacity in China, with a lot of pain for tens of millions. Are the Chinese preparing for such problems? It's akin to someone with no training or experience driving a formula one racing car thinking they know everything about racing,...it invariably results in a big crash. Are the mainland mandarins listening much to their Hong Kong business counterparts?

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