SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
From: Cal Amari8/22/2007 9:46:07 AM
Read Replies (2) of 306849
 
More pain to come in ARM resets?

I saw these figures yesterday, suggesting that pain in the subprime (and even prime) mortgage markets has far from peaked. It seems that the peak in ARM resets will occur in Q2 '08. I would expect defaults to roll in 2-3 months after a substantial upward ARM reset, depending on where prime rate happens to be at the time.

ARM Resets ($ billions)

Jan 07 $22
Feb 07 $25
Mar 07 $35
Apr 07 $37
May 07 $36
Jun 07 $42
Jul 07 $43
Aug 07 $52
Sep 07 $58
Oct 07 $55
Nov 07 $52
Dec 07 $58
Jan 08 $80
Feb 08 $88
Mar 08 $110
Apr 08 $92
May 08 $76
Jun 08 $75
Jul 08 $50
Aug 08 $35
Sep 08 $26
Oct 08 $20
Nov 08 $15
Dec 08 $17

Even if defaults do not exceed historical averages (which I expect they will, given lax lending standards), based on the foregoing table, I am guessing that the negative ripple effect of ARM resets on the general economy will be felt through the end of 2008 at the earliest - based on the theory that the aggregated ARM resets are going to consume a whole LOT of discretionary spending money.

-VK
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News