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Strategies & Market Trends : Portfolio Construction

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To: Paul Chiu who wrote (559)	8/22/2007 2:01:48 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) of 1964

I roll back into tech for the 4th quarter every year. APPL is the standout favorite as I digress from the non sense of the PC group led by msft and intc. They still haven't figured out the biggest problem with all their equipment is that the users don't have any digital content to make their boxes come to life. Apple has mad life interesting for people with the iStore so that people can listen to music and watch dvd's. They are closer to the holy grail of artifical intelligence than Gates will ever get in technology. Realistically, I have to use some exposure to groups that I'm not crazy about to keep me from becoming too exposed to one industry. BA, UTX, CVX, and DO have all been good trades for me. I went back into my DO shares again today, since Lehman came out with aggressive EPS 2009 estimates and new price targets around $125. See if they can't run past $100, or I'll dump them again. It's great to see all the reverse correction work it's way back from the financials to the inflation stocks today. Seems to me like things are getting back to normal in a hurry. I think the action in the financials is interesting now that the banks are using the discount window to add liquidity to the rest of the financial system. I think Bernanke is telling them to use all monetary policy if they want him to continue to accomodate lower rates. I think the FED will come in Friday to make a cut in the FED funds rate, consistent with his $38 billion repo 2 weeks ago and the cut in the discount rate last Friday. Corporate bond spreads, banks, and reit's led the way down in the correction and industrials and commodities collapsed at the end. Now, I kind of see the bounce working in the reverse direction as the financials bounced last week and the commodities and industrials are bouncing this week. Just the rolling nature of these corrections.

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