now for a dose of reality
"Intel Report Questions Iraq's Progress
By PAULINE JELINEK 08.23.07, 8:56 AM ET
WASHINGTON - U.S. intelligence agencies have written a mixed report on Iraq, finding some progress but indicating the Baghdad government may not be able to carry it forward, a defense official said Thursday.
The National Intelligence Assessment on Iraq is due to be released Thursday afternoon. The official discussed it on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about it on the record.
He said the report will find there has been "some progress with Sunnis" fighting against al-Qaida. Sunni insurgents in some areas have turned on al-Qaida in a program in which U.S. commanders negotiate cease-fires and try to incorporate the fighters into Iraqi government security forces.
The report also warns, as some commanders on the ground have, that extremists could attempt sensational attacks to create a "mini-Tet"_ a reference to the 1968 Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Tet offensive that undermined public support for the Vietnam War in the United States.
The assessment also expresses deep doubts that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki can overcome sectarian divisions and meet benchmarks intended to promote political unity, The New York Times reported in Thursday editions. The report cited unidentified officials
The assessment by the nation's 16 intelligence agencies comes at a time of renewed tension in relations between Washington and Baghdad.
President Bush had appeared on Tuesday to be distancing himself from the Iraqi leader when he said at a North American summit in Canada: "Clearly, the Iraqi government's got to do more." The White House denied Bush was backing away from al-Maliki, but it was a lukewarm endorsement compared with last November, when Bush called al-Maliki "the right guy for Iraq."
Al-Maliki, on a trip to Syria, quickly lashed back at U.S. criticism. He called it "discourteous," said no one has the right to impose timetables on his elected government, and that Iraq can "find friends elsewhere."
Under pressure to reaffirm his backing for the Iraqi leader, Bush said Wednesday that "Prime Minister Maliki is a good guy, good man with a difficult job, and I support him."
Echoing the frustration of many in Washington, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker said this week that progress on national issues had been "extremely disappointing and frustrating to all concerned."
Slow political progress in Iraq is at the heart of the U.S. military troop buildup Bush announced in January. The president justified sending more troops to increase security and give Iraqi political leaders the breathing space to reconcile.
Crocker and the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, are due to report next month on how much progress is being made with the buildup, which now has some 162,000 troops, the highest of the four-year-old war.
Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed
Below, some important findings:
"Decrease in Baghdad violence due to sectarian cleansing:
The polarization of communities is most evident in Baghdad, where the Shia are a clear majority in more than half of all neighborhoods and Sunni areas have become surrounded by predominately Shia districts. Where population displacements have led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves.
Violence to remain high over next six to 12 months:
[L]evels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high [over next six to 12 months] and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.
National government to become more “precarious” over next six to 12 months:
The Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. … The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decisionmaking, and increased Maliki’s vulnerability to alternative coalitions
Refugee crisis will continue to spill over during “next six to 12 months”:
Population displacement resulting from sectarian violence continues, imposing burdens on provincial governments and some neighboring states and increasing the danger of destabilizing influences spreading across Iraq’s borders over the next six to 12 months." |
