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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Tradelite who wrote (87155)8/26/2007 11:49:10 PM
From: Les HRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
"Figures comparing median sales prices never mean much when you're isolating them to certain months or certain specific areas, because the number of homes involved is never big enough to prove much of anything. I've also never been impressed with reports of "price reductions", because one never knows if a price was realistic to begin with and in line with recent comps when the property was first listed."

So you agree that your article drew an invalid conclusion from the data.

"But to predict actual number of sales going "back down"? The story in the Post clearly reported increased number of sales lately (not just prices), so wouldn't we have to wait and see whether the trend continues?"

I referred to the median and the average, not the total units. The median and average will fluctuate wildly in Arlington from one month to the next depending on the mix of homes. There was a 9 percent decline in the median earlier this year while the unit volume rose by 17 percent.

"All I know is, a home recently sold (about two months ago) on my street which is almost identical to two others which sold over the past several years; the sales prices on all three were identical, so I guess I'd have to assume some prices are unchanged (at least for certain types of homes in some locations)."

Two homes down the street sold within 2 percent of the last sale on the block two years ago. A more expensive model on the waterfront has gone unsold for nearly two years.

I know a realtor/investor who's still trying to sell her home on the lakefront after 12 months and 25 percent in price reductions.

The sellers of condos down the street have reduced their asking prices by 10-30 percent. The 1brs have fallen by 20-30 percent. The 2brs are down by about 10 percent. There seems to be some sales ocurring.

I haven't checked out Arlington for awhile. I've heard that it's holding up from relatives in N Arlington.
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