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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (27907)8/27/2007 12:20:31 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) of 78755
 
Hi Jurgis - For me the sell proposition is the most difficult as there are many different measures to determine "fair value". My basic consideration is earnings and a precursor to this is the company's ability to generate free flow cash flow.

"Time is the enemy of the poor business and the friend of the great business. If you have a business that's earning 20%-25% on equity, time is your friend. But time is your enemy if your money is in a low return business

1998 Berkshire Annual Meeting

With these cigar-butt positions, the company usually has gone through some "black swain" event and no longer generates free flow cash or have any earnings. They either die or can rise from the dead like Halliburton Company (HAL) in Dec 2001 with their asbestos litigation problems.

Management is key but it is very difficult to quantify other than looking at their past history.

"At what price do real value investors sell?"....according to Buffet never as long as the company continues to grow and generate good earnings.

"Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."
-1996 Shareholders Letter

EKS
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