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Strategies & Market Trends : SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (1319)8/28/2007 4:38:44 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuyRead Replies (1) of 1718
 
It's a question of how quickly the economy rolls over and whether or not the Fed can revive it with a limited number of rate cuts.

I am not in that camp, but I don't have the extensive background like Mishedlo <g> to analyze whether it's true or not.

I believe the current problems are deeper than 1994 and 2000. However unlike those periods global growth is much stronger and the world appears more balanced. However, that's pitted against a Fed that won't be as vigilant in terms of protecting financial assets as the Greenspan Fed was. Net-Net the end result is probably a deeper recession than in 2000 - probably along the lines of 1990 in terms of economic magnitude but with a different policy response than previous downturns under Greenie.

So my prediction: Market falls, Fed cuts on Sep 18th. Market rallies pretty strongly. Then we wait and see how badly earnings deteriorate.
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