2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud Message Board

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Technology Stocks : 2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (263)	10/7/1997 11:11:00 PM
From: David Eddy	of 1361

Bill, Again, Bill, no dispute whatsoever from me that there is a tremendous amount of hype swirling around supposed Y2K stocks. And we'll see more. What I'm trying to get at here is why is this date change problem any worse than any other computer boundary condition problem? It's much worse for several reasons: - about 15 years ago the CASE industry (no comments on over hype there) was being born. It's rallying cry became: "Forget those nasty legacy systems. We'll just rewrite them with this magic CASE tool." - When that didn't work, the rallying cry shifted to: "Let's replace those dumb ol' mainframes with cheap client/server MIPS with GUIs." Neither one of these (and other intervening fads) has delivered on the grossly overhyped promise. Yet the legacy systems continued to churn away & be modified & modified & modified. Today's "new" systems get built on top of existing systems. Surely you don't think that EMC's been selling so much disk space which then has the data entered manually do you? Now "suddenly" we actually have a truely fixed date. [Hmmmm... you never answered my question on how many on time, on budget, on functionality projects you've been on. <g>] The IT industry has a miserable track record of deliverying predictable projects. And Y2K is the mother of all projects. Next... every (computer dependent) shop on earth will be contending with Y2K in a very narrow time window... the draw on critical inelastic skills--senior management focus, skilled project managers, and programmers--will be severe. There is an article on Peter de Jager's web site which sums up the skeptical point of view fairly well: Nicholas Z loves the attention from being the contrarian. He was educated in the English debating traditions. Someone always has to take the other side, regardless of how rediculous the position you're defending. For Nicholas, being an expert contrarian is an exposure opportunity.s Back to you... David

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