Order book focus of Novellus Systems update
(there is a mis quote - Hill said FLAT +/-5% not flat to +5%; no big deal but there still a lot of rats out there ...
Or my name is not Kroc that's Kroc with a K
A crocodile is not spelt that way now
Ohh it's Dog eat Dog, Rat eat Rat
Dog eat Dog, Rat eat Rat now
Ohh it's Dog eat Dog, Rat eat Rat
Kroc style - Boom like that)
sequentially flat +/-5% Q/Q.
AmTech pundit is quoting accurately;
one major memory maker is supposedly transitioning to copper. It would make sense for Hinicks to switch to copper while converting to 300mm though it's risky but if plays out it will pay off.
Both NVLS and LRCX should benefit from Hinicks
By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:04 PM ET Aug 29, 2007
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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Weaker demand from memory-chip makers and soft spending from third-party chip manufacturers is likely to keep a lid on any upside to the order book at chip-equipment provider Novellus Systems Inc., analysts predict.
Novellus (NVLS:
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, , ) is scheduled to issue its midquarter update Thursday afternoon.
"Based on current industry conditions, we do not see much potential for upside to orders, and would not be surprised if management lowered this outlook to down 5-10% sequentially," wrote Stifel Nicolaus analyst Patrick Ho, who rates the stock a sell.
San Jose, Calif.-based Novellus has forecast its bookings for the quarter ending in September would be flat to 5% higher than the three months ended June 30. The forecast pegs its bookings in the range of $316 million to $349 million.
When that outlook was issued July 16, it was stronger than most analysts had anticipated.
In separate research notes, Banc of America Securities analyst Mark Fitzgerald and Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar both anticipate Novellus will tighten its orders forecast to the lower end of its previously stated range.
U.S. chip-equipment makers are facing an order slowdown. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT:
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, , ) , for instance, targeted its new equipment orders to be flat to down 5% in the current quarter, which closes at the end of October.
One factor dinging chip-equipment makers is a lull in spending by makers of DRAM memory chips used in PCs and server networks. DRAM has been a huge contributor to a surge in orders for chip-equipment machines the past two years.
Stifel's Ho added that Samsung Electronics Co. and Hynix Semiconductor -- key customers of Novellus -- haven't accelerated spending on equipment for another type of memory technology called NAND flash, which may also impact Novellus' bookings outlook.
In addition, Credit Suisse's Kumar said orders from third-party chip manufacturers, known as foundries, have become "incrementally weaker." Applied reported tepid spending from foundries in its quarterly earnings report Aug. 14.
Shares of Novellus rose 1.8% to $26.73 in midafternoon trading Wednesday. The stock is down more than 22% so far this year. End of Story
Matt Andrejczak is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
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