Honestly, Nadine, I thought that this would happen before it actually happened--simply because I never saw Iraq as fertile ground for an Al Qaeda perspective. And I never heard anything that contradicted that view. They have been far more urban than, e.g., Saudi Arabia, and were more diverse than some of the smaller Gulf countries. Not to mention the fact that Sunnis represented a relatively small minority
I don't have any figures at hand, but I would be quite surprised if Iraq weren't considerably less urban than Saudi Arabia. Iraq has lots of agricultural land still being farmed by old (=labor intensive) methods. Saudi Arabia has little fertile land. And the Sunnis persisted in believing that they weren't a minority and they had a right to rule. Basically, it's taken four years of failure to teach them that this isn't going to work. Kudos to you if you predicted beforehand that Anbar was going to flip. However, I don't recall your doing so. Got any links?
And Iran would most definitely not look favorably on an Iraq with strong Al Qaeda influences
One would think. However, did you miss this part?
Other tribesmen told me women weren't the only issue. The tribes run smuggling, import/export and construction businesses which AQI shut down, took over, or disrupted through violent disturbances that were "bad for business". Another factor was the belief, widespread among the tribes (and with at least some basis in fact) that AQI has links to, and has received funding and support from, Iran
Seems Iran just hates us enough to foster an AQ run Iraq.
Indeed, this is one of AQ's fatal flaws and why it will never amount to much if the US doesn't give it any ammunition with our own brand of ethno-stupidity (which the Bush admin has been masterfully doing, almost as if they were secret partners with AQ).
This whole article was about how AQ' ethno-stupidity far exceeds ours, and they don't even have the excuse of being non-Muslim non-Arabs. As the article pointed out, AQs methods worked like a charm in Pashtunistan. Maybe we are not so ethno-stupid after all. Maybe Iraqi Arabs are very tough for everybody. I mean, did we send all our geniuses to Kurdistan or are the Kurds really different?
You say, well, they couldn't have done it without American support. Perhaps--but, honestly, I doubt it.
They have foreign backing, foreign money and utter ruthlessness, as you saw. Perhaps they could have driven the tribes into revolt anyway, but if the tribes were outgunned they would have to reckon on very heavy losses. If the Marines are on their side, suddenly the tribes don't have to do all the heavy lifting. Different set of calculations.
Well, his list has about as much chance of succeeding as we in the US do of actually implementing gun control, or even registration and identification of guns. Why would anyone think it would succeed in the far more dangerous environment of Iraq?
What has dangerous to do with it? Far easier to do when you don't have the ACLU holding you up. Kilcullen is just proposing integrating the tribal militias into the US training that's been going on for years.
The Iraqis will eventually find their own solution. With persistence, the US may give them some time and space to do that without Iran and AQI trying to burn the house down around their ears. The US is also trying to do something else slow and difficult: a culture transfer, showing Arabs how professional armies actually work. The Arabs are painfully aware that their own systems don't work, but its very hard for them to admit it or make adjustments. |
