Kudos to you if you predicted beforehand that Anbar was going to flip.
No, I didn't specifically predict that Anbar would "flip." I've been saying all along, though, that the Iraqi Sunnis and AQ were at best unnatural partners, and that the Iraqis would in the ripeness of time turn on AQ.
Another factor was the belief, widespread among the tribes (and with at least some basis in fact) that AQI has links to, and has received funding and support from, Iran
No, I didn't miss it. If I were leading Iran, with a guy like Bush calling me one of the axes of "evil" (along with my traditional enemy and a country that I could care less about on a different continent altogether), and Bush invaded that neighbor still making noises about how evil my country was even after I had helped them with their invasion of another country on my border due to the presence of AQ and the Taliban, then I may very well help the enemies of the US in Iraq keep the US all tied up, both to diminish their prestige in the area and to try to ensure that their people wouldn't think that attacking a Muslim country wasn't a very good idea. I might even give my own enemy that was fighting the US some weapons and support--nothing too dramatic, but enough to help them make the US occupation go badly. Then again, maybe not, maybe they have enough help from backers in SA, the alleged "friends" of the US, so that Iranian help would be unnecessary. Not, of course, that the US has ever engaged in playing the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" game.
This whole article was about how AQ' ethno-stupidity far exceeds ours, and they don't even have the excuse of being non-Muslim non-Arabs.
I dunno, we've both been pretty stupid in our own ways. I'm really not so sure who wins this prize. We possibly have somewhat more room for error due to our military strength and the wealth we're willing to waste on this venture.
Maybe we are not so ethno-stupid after all. Maybe Iraqi Arabs are very tough for everybody. I mean, did we send all our geniuses to Kurdistan or are the Kurds really different?
Yeah, the Kurds are different, culturally and politically. Like I said before, read Galbraith's book, The End of Iraq. If Galbraith's portrait is wrong, then I am wrong. I don't think it is.
It isn't just that Iraqi Arabs are "different", it's their political past and their oil wealth that makes the situation there so explosive. I repeat my oft-stated belief: the only solution that has a possibility of pulling our nuts a little bit out of the fire is the Biden-Gelb-Galbraith solution.
ME: Well, his list has about as much chance of succeeding as we in the US do of actually implementing gun control, or even registration and identification of guns. Why would anyone think it would succeed in the far more dangerous environment of Iraq?
YOU: What has dangerous to do with it? Far easier to do when you don't have the ACLU holding you up. Kilcullen is just proposing integrating the tribal militias into the US training that's been going on for years.
Nadine, half of his list has to do with regulating/ registering guns. I doubt if I would give up my weapons if I was living there. I have no idea why you are bringing the ACLU into it--they aren't holding up registering guns, any more than they hold up registering cars. |
