SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: stan_hughes who wrote (85833)9/2/2007 11:43:27 PM
From: bart13  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I agree about M2 and M3 being highly correlated, but M3 varies more widely... and hope that makes sense.
I also agree about M1 and recessions, but its not a great predictor at all.
He & I also see the liquidity issues and the dichotomy similarly.

I'm not at all sure of what he's looking at about M1 though but perhaps I'm missing something.
There are plenty of times in the last 26+ years that its annual growth rate has dipped below zero.

Here's just the last 7 years (I had to use a 4 week average against a year ago's 4 week average since M1 can be very volatile on just an annual change rate basis from weekly data) and as you can see it's been below zero a lot. The dark blue line is M1.



Here's a longer term picture - annual change rates again:

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News