This recon mission description is good on SD real estate ... sounds like Shanghai, but without the prospects, promising either mucho bargains or plenty of kind-hearted monetary inflation, depending on political inclination and electoral forbearance. Between Stupefying Stagflation ala Zimbabwe and Devastating Depression akin to Argentina, I hope the electorates choose wisely. Either way, the right sort of second abode still ought to drop 80% relative to something else, though not necessarily cash - figure 50% nominal price decline (100 to 50), paired with 50% currency devaluation (50 to 25), and 20% 'hard buy' bargaining (25 to 20), is how we can get THERE from HERE.
Should anyone here figure out what that something else is, do tell when known or even suspect.
The two hugely enormous differences (as noticeable as a putrid whale sandwich in the cat poo box in the middle of the foyer) between the current real estate soon-to-be debacle and past episodes is that, (i) via refinancing, whole neighborhood participated, as opposed to simply the last marginal purchaser, and the toxin is all over the financial arena, in every pension nook and all other hedge fund cranny, all the way to Europe and Asia; and (ii) via employment, a whole two generations of workers have come to rely on the real estate industry's largess, on Main Street and on Wall Street.
Small distinction to some, but gad, we have never been here before, and the punishment promises to be severe, or ought to, biblically speaking, fire and brimstone, crimson coloured moon, etc, so on and so forth, ad infinitum, ad nauseam, and then once again, twice more. You got the message.
I have eyes on Hawaii, along with 100 mil Japanese and 1 billion Chinese (have not seen a lot of Indians in Hawaii - perhaps the weather is not to their liking), and so perhaps Hawaii will prove robust this time around.
This penthouse loopnet.com was gotten out of bank auction in 1999 at USD 900k and was packaged with a piece of residential building lot in beautiful Kailua! So, wait, be patient, there is no such thing as the "last and final opportunity" - this real estate monster has much blood to drain out yet. |
