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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (21971)	9/4/2007 1:38:23 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) of 218157

So, how much leverage does Iran actually have? Analysts at the Heritage Foundation asked themselves this question back in December. To find the answer, they constructed a war-game scenario of an Iranian-induced world oil crisis, and entered the resulting date into a model of the U.S. economy run by the highly respected economic forecaster Global Insight. The results will be published at a meeting this morning at the Heritage Foundation, and the good news is that Iran’s power to harm at least the U.S. economy is far less than is often predicted. The scenario on which the game was based is highly realistic. It goes as follows: After the U.N. Security Council finally agrees to significant sanctions on Iran, the Islamic Republic pulls out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and conducts a nuclear test. The United States bombs Iran’s nuclear sites and airbases in retaliation. Iran institutes an embargo on the United States and any country that does not condemn U.S. actions, and sinks an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Players in the war game took several steps that mitigated the resulting energy shock within weeks. Quick military action reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. government employed the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Congress lifted tariffs on ethanol and temporarily eased regulatory burdens. Even in the worst-case scenario ? when the oil shock would send prices of crude to $135 per barrel with the resulting loss of one million U.S. jobs - these relatively modest government actions all but nullified the crisis within six weeks. segye.com

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