Ha, it's not easy to be a bear in this corrupt
market -g-. It is possible we see new 5 year highs soon for
all indexes. Nasdaq-100 is now very close. Bailouts prevail.
Here is the standard drill when TNX and spreads get too high:
1) induce a stock market correction to bring TNX down.
2) All rates follow risk-free rate. Other rates come down.
Spreads narrow.
3) Jam the futures to lift the indexes to all-time highs in a
narrow rally, possibly overnight. All index gains happen
between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. in the futures, then the market
flip-flops all day, 0 gains to down during market hours.
(seen that in Summer-2006 AND the current rally)
4) Repeat when 10-year rates get too high.
5) Nothing matters: ignore Katrina, Rita, Iraq, terrorists,
GM bonds meltdown, MBS meltdown.
So? I think we should see new highs for stocks soon. It worked.
Stocks are up significantly, while rates did not move up at
all. Until they do, buy stocks in a standard drill fashion.
Once USB starts melting DOWN along with USD (all debt is
NOT USD-denominated; it is Yen debt), then we get it - 15%
mortgage rates, double the grocery and gas bill, and stock
indexes + the dollar cut in half. Until then it's 1999 again,
so... time to party -g- |
