$33: NOK at Summers End
Resistance at $33
On Friday before Labor Day here in the USA, NOK poked its head above $33 for the 1st time since May 2001. It evidently didn't like breathing the rarified air up there and retreated to close at a 6 year, 3 month record high of $32.88 (+$0.41 +1.26% for the day) on very light trading. Nokia's new market cap is $129,275.50 on float of 3,892.400 million shares according to Reuters.
NOK blew through resistance at $31 last week, and closed above $32 three straight days, and higher each day, following the London Go Play event.
NOK1V closed Friday at €24.21 (+0.17%) on the HEX.
With Labor Day weekend now over, on Tuesday NOK closed at 33.60 on NYSE.
The Summer of 2007 by the Numbers
Memorial Day Weekend opens the peak summer season here in the States and the season closes when investors and analysts depart to celebrate Labor Day weekend (August 31, 2007).
It was an interesting summer, a season when tech in general and wireless sector in particular, usually swoons, and often corrects sharply, particularly if they have had a strong H1 and they did briefly and modestly correct this year in late July to early August but many tech tocks and major indexes quickly recovered.
Nokia opened the summer season after Memorial Day on May 29 at $26.71 and closed the summer on 8/31 strongly up (+$6.17, +23.1%) at $32.88. StockCharts flags an ascending triple top breakout on August 29 ...
stockcharts.com
A breakout above a triple top implies that buyers are now creating more demand than there is supply and therefore the prices are breaking out.
The S&P 500 Index opened at 1516.34 on 5/29 and closed down (-42 points, -2.9%) for the summer on 8/31 at 1,473.99.
The NASDAQ Composite Index opened on May 29 at 2561.04 on 5/29 and closed slightly up for the summer (+36 points, +1.4%) on 8/31 at 2596.36.
If there was any sector rotation during the summer Nokia benefited because all of its principle competitors closed the summer somewhat lower than they opened it, some more than others.
Amongst market leading large caps in wireless sector NOK has been the clear cut performance leader for the last 3 years even though their recovery from an August 2004 multi-year low of $10.89 was somewhat choppy until this year because for 2 of those years Nokia traded market share growth Q to Q with Motorola and sacrificed some margin in the process of recovering share in a highly competitive market to its current record levels.
Wireless Market Leaders & Challengers (Handset, Infra, ICs. IPR) Performance¹
8/31 Close CYTD One Year Two Years Three Years Five Years
========== ======= ======== ========= =========== ==========
Nokia (NOK) $32.88 +61.81% +57.47% +108.50% +177.00% +147.40%
TI (TXN) $35.92 +18.89% 05.06% +04.77% +75.23% +73.81%
QUALCOMM (QCOM) $39.89 +05.56% +05.89% +00.45% +04.84% +187.91%
Ericsson (ERIC) $37.21 -7.51% +11.41% +06.59% +37.61% +409.73%
Motorola (MOT) $16.95 -17.56% -27.50% -22.53% +17.30% +57.82%
InDigital(IDCC) $23.11 -31.12% -30.45% +29.98% +48.24% +159.08%
S&P 500 1,473.99 +03.93% +13.05% +20.79% +33.48% +60.90%
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Market Cap. TTM Revenue Net TTM 8/31/07 52 Week
Company/Symbol (Millions) (Millions) Margin P/E Price Low High
============== =========== ============ ======== ===== ======= ====== ======
Nokia (NOK) $129,275.50 $60,315.73 12.5% 16.2x $32.88 $18.62 $33.14
QUALCOMM (QCOM) $66,785.16 $8,564.00 32.5% 24.2x $42.77 $34.10 $34.10
Ericsson (ERIC) $60,028.49 $26,896.20 15.4% 14.5x $38.39 $32.06 $43.41
TI (TXN) $48,931.88 $13,839.00 18.0% 20.6x $34.24 $28.24 $39.63
Motorola (MOT) $38,876.33 $40,560.00 2.5% 42.4x $16.95 $15.61 $26.30
InDigital(IDCC) $1,088.25 $255.07 21.6% 22.8x $23.11 $19.55 $36.91
·
¹ Source: Reuters 8/31/07 ProVestor Pus Company Reports
NOK on NYSE in 2007: Weekly Closes, Weekly Volumes, and 14 Year Performance
Week Ending Week Close Volume NASDAQ Close
=========== ========== ========== ============
8/31/2007 32.88 19,903,600 2596.3601
Nokia London/Singapore Go Play Event - Wednesday, August 29, 2007
8/24/2007 30.97 20,472,200 2576.6899
8/17/2007 29.37 28,608,500 2505.0300
8/10/2007 29.90 31,226,500 2544.8899
8/3/2007 29.65 37,814,500 2511.2500
Nokia 2Q 2007 Results - Thursday, August 02, 2007
7/27/2007 27.96 29,213,700 2561.5601
7/20/2007 29.28 18,161,200 2687.6001
7/13/2007 29.91 19,478,700 2707.0000
7/6/2007 28.92 11,341,000 2666.5100
6/29/2007 28.11 19,547,800 2603.2300
6/22/2007 27.76 25,052,100 2588.9600
6/15/2007 29.01 20,974,600 2626.7100
6/8/2007 28.05 21,680,900 2573.5400
6/01/2007 28.19 48,084,000 2613.9199
5/25/2007 26.67 47,799,500 2557.1899
5/18/2007 27.04 60,858,200 2558.4500
Nokia increases its Q2 2007 device market share outlook - May 14, 2007
5/11/2007 25.07 53,904,200 2562.2200
5/04/2007 25.39 42,398,600 2572.1499
4/27/2007 25.60 42,854,400 2557.2100
4/20/2007 25.05 75,628,300 2526.3899
Nokia 1Q 2007 Results - Thursday, April 19, 2007
4/13/2007 23.79 54,192,800 2491.9399
4/05/2007 23.54 44,007,000 2471.3401
3/30/2007 22.92 45,864,800 2421.6399
3/23/2007 22.97 52,722,100 2456.1799
3/16/2007 21.85 43,938,500 2372.6599
3/09/2007 21.66 50,222,300 2387.5501
3/02/2007 21.14 74,803,700 2368.0000
2/023/2007 22.84 44,956,700 2515.1001
2/016/2007 23.14 63,741,800 2496.3101
2/09/2007 21.74 54,691,000 2459.8201
2/02/2007 22.07 71,365,200 2475.8799
1/26/2007 21.58 152,375,600 2435.4900
Nokia 4Q 2007 and CY2007 Results - Thursday, January 25, 2006
1/19/2007 20.13 68,058,900 2451.3101
1/12/2007 19.49 84,635,900 2502.8201
1/05/2007 19.84 59,150,300 2434.2500
=========== ========== ========== ============
Year Ending Year Close 1 Year Chg¹ NASDAQ Close NASADQ YoY Change
=========== ========== ========== ============ =================
CYTD 2007 32.88 62.20% 2596.3601 +07.50% (part year)
12/29/2006 20.32 11.04% 2415.2900 +09.52%
12/30/2005 18.30 16.78% 2205.3201 +01.37%
12/31/2004 15.95 -7.82% 2175.4399 +10.25%
12/26/2003 16.69 9.68% 1973.1400 +46.34%
12/27/2002 15.55 -36.81% 1348.3101 -32.15%
12/28/2001 25.25 -43.61% 1987.2600 -19.56%
12/29/2000 43.50 -8.42% 2470.5200 -39.29%
12/31/1999 47.50 215.52% 4069.3101 +85.59%
12/31/1998 15.05 244.11% 2192.6899 +45.08%
12/26/1997 4.13 21.47% 1511.3800 +17.04%
12/27/1996 3.58 48.23% 1291.3800 +22,73%
12/29/1995 2.43 3.66% 1052.1300 +39.99%
12/30/1994 2.34 78.05% 751.9600 +06.38% (part year)
7/1/1994 1.32 -- 706.8500 -- (NYSE entry)
·
¹ 1 year price change without dividends reinvested
All share prices above are split adjusted. Nokia shares have split as follows:
• 4 for 1 Split on 4/11/2000
• 2 for 1 Split on 4/12/1999
• 2 for 1 Split on 4/16/1998
• 2 for 1 Split on 4/25/1995
• 5 for 1 Split on 12/31/1986
Historic Returns
Nokia shares 1st traded in the United Staes as NOK Amarican Depository Shares (ADS) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 1, 1994. Nokia opened that day at $1.2891 and closed later that day at its daily high of $1.3164 on 29.936 million shares traded. Shares purchased that day with dividends reinvested have since appreciated 3,104% for an annualized total return of 30.1%.
The Nokia Investment Calculator has no share price for time periods prior to January 27 1993 but NOK1V shares purchased on 1/27/1993, 13 months after Jorma Ollila became Nokia CEO and focused the company on mobile wireless, have yielded a total return of 12,850% for an annualized total return of 39.53%. An investment of €10,000 on that date with dividends reinvested is worth €1,294,995 (42,992 split adjusyed shares) today. In US dollars today that would be $1,767,228 today.
Comparing NOK1V/NOK with a legendary US Mobile Wireless Story Stock, a $10,000 investment in QCOM on 1/27/1993 with dividends reinvested (313 shares at $34 per share) would be worth $425,574 today (10,669 split adjusted shares ), a 4,156% total return in that 14 year, 7 months and 8 day, period.
Early LTB&H investors in either NOK or QCOM or both that failed to take profit and held through the Y2K meltdown and telecoms recession have seen their paper worth decline. Nneither stock has recovered to their closing prices at the end of the 1999 tech bubble year of 1999.
A Quillionaire that held through today sees his 1999 end paper Quillion worth only $484,316 (-51.6%) even with dividends reinvested.
An American Nokia Millionaire that held through 100% of his 1999 ending paper worth of $1 million USD (€995,937) is today worth only $778,270 (-21.98%) even with dividends reinvested. Currency exchange rates get into play here. A European Nokia Millionaire at 1999 end today sees his NOK1V shares valued €610.54 (-38.33%) even with dividends reinvested.
Caveat: The usual. I may have made typos, calculation errors, transposition errors, currency conversion errors or such what in compiling data for this post. If anybody spots one, I'd appreciate having it pointed out.
Disclosure: I currently hold both NOK and QCOM. My original NOK investment was December '94. I folded it (appreciated nicely) to fund my initial investment in QCOM at the end of '98. I've been back in an completely out of NOK 3 times since 2001, adding and/or reducing each time. I still hold some portion of QCOM shares purchased at '98 end at an average cost of $3.33 but have reduced, added, and reduced again several times since. My current position in NOK dates from earnings day open in July 2004.
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- Eric (IC) - |
