The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (85877)	9/5/2007 9:16:35 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Haim - The last two cycle peaks took 16 to 19 years. This one will take the same to reach the low. We should see INDU 4674 into 2337 before this whole credit market unwinds. The last two cycle peaks took 16 to 19 years. This one will take the same to reach the low. We will have many rallies ahead on the way down. That low target is way out in our future - 2013ish or later. There will be another rally starting with the coming low, as late as 3Q 2008 or sooner depending on action near term. That rally should carry us forward for 4 years then another nasty down leg in the 2011 to 2013 window. This whole unwinding process, like all cycles takes a decade to two to complete. FYI - there is the potential in the model for a new high, only if INDU 13503 is taken out and held on a closing basis. I would not be short if this occurs. However that new high will quickly melt - there is zero question we have topped or are finishing this topping process. Will update as we go forward. Hate making such bold predictions, but the data dictates such. This data takes in decades and decades worth of fact and history in US markets. The K wave will not be defeated, no matter what FED or government thinks. I do hear what you are saying, I feel they are powerless to stop it. They have let the debt levels get too far away from them in their greed. Your opinion is very valued by me as one of the important posters to this board. One that takes everyone opinions and does not knock others for what they think and post. Long term predictions are always guess work, most likely this board will be gone before we reach that market bottom. However it is always good to have models to work off of, that is very important in making investment choices. One more note, gold should have one last rally before the game is over for the metal. Tread carefully once it decides to roll over.....and roll over it will. The patterns are looking very toppy in another quarter or so. West

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next