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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: c.hinton who wrote (241097)9/6/2007 1:17:17 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
9 out of 10 means for every 100 attempts ten will get through.

how long will it go on?

Until they get tired & it stops working. Usually a bit of both. Look at all the Palestinian airplane hijackings in the early 1970s. Why did they stop? They got harder to pull off, and later ones weren't likely to achieve more than the earlier ones had in terms of putting the Pal cause on the map. They weren't yielding any Israeli concessions.

Terrorism depends on the shock effect. Terrorists are trying to shock people and demoralize a society. Their attacks don't have any actual military value. That's why terrorism only works on democracies where a free press will report it and the power structure cares about the lives of the people.

But after a while, the shock value wears off, and the society becomes inured and less responsive. And the counter-measures usually improve too, both defensive and offensive. So basically it loses effectiveness after a while.

If a suicide bomber hit Tel Aviv tomorrow, would it change the Israeli debate? The only debate would be about how hard and long to send the IDF in for reprisals. Nothing else would be debated. Suicide bombers trying to hit Israel and Fatah, PIJ, and Hamas all taking turns to send them, it's totally factored into the equation by now.
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