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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD
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To: Canuck Dave who wrote (90832)9/6/2007 5:36:53 PM
From: E. Charters  Read Replies (3) of 312903
 
You think Kondratieff cycles have any validity?

I am an expert on that having written the first computer program to calculate their continuation by non linear regression and fourier analysis.

My estimation is the are valid given an error band of 15 years, and the occasional drop-out of cycle peaks for no apparent reason. It may need the addition of sunspot cycles to adequately smooth the gyrations. Silver, wheat, sugar, gold, US dollars, the Libor and the HUI may not be enough.

Some have suggested the possibility of a 'strange attractor' that is manifested by a singularity precipitated by early market withdrawals. Certain hyper 'butterfly-wing' type early warnings may presage these financial oddities. (The 'sky is falling' effect) The Chaikin money flow indicates that this effect seems to emanate mainly from the Pacific North West.

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