According to folks in HK who track such things for a living, 50% + of the drop in foreign T bond holdings are accounted for by the drop in CB reserve of Venezuela, and given the constipation of loans and punishingly piercing increase in borrowing rates, and the fact that two of my cousins (banker, security firm opeartor) have sent their wives (both doctors) to Miami, and a third cousin who had escaped to Columbia post the failed coup and now is back in country, i would give more credibility to Venezuela equation than to the China formulae.
Now, according to other wise men, should Venezuela go down, oil price can spike down, first, and then pierce up, later, due to Chavez trying to get moolah by opening oil spigot, if he is able, and then due to disruption upon onset of social chaos, which might well transmit as a virus would via oil shock, to the empire, wobble its derivative foundations to the imperial core, harm the big government yoke, etc etc, anfd bring on more extremism of all sorts, ranging from capitalist trade, neo-com politics, to yours-is-mine financial engineering ... maybe I got wires crossed and misunderstood
we will just have to see
Chugs, TJ |
