The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Grandk who wrote (88441)	9/7/2007 5:18:35 PM
From: jcole05	Read Replies (1) of 306849

I find it very hard to predict the way the market will react. For example, I was quite surprised that the reaction to the last Fed meeting was a hard spike down followed by a near immediate reversal because their action was viewed as a vote of confidence in the economy. Likewise, a cut could be primarily seen as an admission of weakness instead of a reason to look toward the future stimulatory effects of said rate cut(s). This time around, I plan to stay a bit light in terms of risk exposure until we get a bit more info. As I've posted, I have spent about 95% of the last 6 months being short with very occasional (and brief) longs. WHEN/if we get a rate cut, I'll jump in heavily on the short side if the market is still fairly near it's all time highs because whatever mania we see should have no staying power. If we've declined a bit from these levels, and hopefully I've profited from being short, I think it will make sense to be a bit more cautious before getting heavily short. Long post to say I don't know what's going to happen, but I think the overall trend is still down and I plan to position myself accordingly.

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