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Strategies & Market Trends : Predictive Markets
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From: ~digs9/8/2007 12:51:29 PM
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For expiry purposes, a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative real GDP growth.
Expiry will be based on the data reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureauof Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.1, "Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product") as reported by the BEA.
If the table as reported at that time indicates that any two consecutive quarters between (and including) Q4 of the previous year and Q4 of the year specified in the contract are negative, then the contract will expire at 100. Otherwise, the contract will expire at 0.
For example, if Q4 of 2007 and Q1 of 2008 both experience negative growth then the contract for 2008 will expire at 100.
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