That seems to mean you'd rather have gold than ofdm. A very strange choice.
TJ, your memory is highly selective and prejudiced. You are right that gold will outlast QUALCOMM, which is an emphemeral commercial construct by a bunch of enthusiasts with a lot of intelligence, creative energy and an idea. But what of it?
There is more to life than lasting a million years. In fact, I venture to suggest that gold will also outlast YOU. Which doesn't mean your life isn't worth putting a lot of enthusiasm, intelligence and creative energy into.
Maximizing value is the name of the game.
It isn't true that since the beginning of our discussions ... etc
After the initial discussions, during the Biotelecosmictechdot.com which I had expected since May 1999, you were wrong, year after year. Gold vs 10 x QCOM lapped gold once, then almost again, and will do so.
I had expected QCOM to drop from the ridiculous high of $200 and it quickly did to $150 and then to $100. At $150, I had thought QCOM might easily get as low as $50 if the Biotelecosmitechdot.com crunch was a major one. I did not expect it to make it all the way to $23 [in prices of the day] and cleared the decks when it was obvious that the trough was going to be deeper than I had expected [and you no doubt recall my selling of a bunch of QCOM at $65]
Once that trough was reached, you continued year in year out to incorrectly say that gold was a much better investment than QCOM, which it wasn't because 10 x QCOM went from $230 at a time gold was about $270 to $1060 just over a year ago. Gold increased from about $300 to about $700.
So, by hard drive recorded historical data, you were wrong. But not greatly wrong. The world is not predictable, although it is inevitable; yet, paradoxically, it is predictable by people creating reality from their imagination, intelligence and energy though problematically, NOT inevitable as in best laid plans of mice and men.
Do not feel bad about being wrong. It is standard human outcome to be wrong in the details.
CDMA is already, even before having reached its apogee, got it's nemesis in view = OFDM, which first appeared in my horizon scanning for threats and opportunities, in about 1998 or maybe it was 1999 at Auckland University when I was digging around to see what was lurking in the attics, basements and sheds of geekdom.
Fortunately, QUALCOMM worked on OFDM and also bought Flarion, to which Andrew Viterbi had gone. I and another asked him about OFDM at a QCOM AGM [after the show] when we first found out about it, but he was non-committal. It was a disconcerting non-answer.
It turned out that things can't have been all hunky dory on OFDM in QUALCOMM because he subsequently left the company of which he was a founder [he and Irwin Jacobs being decades-long business and intellectual partners] to join Flarion, which was working more enthusiastically on OFDM.
QUALCOMM subsequently bought Flarion. Phew! It was very expensive, but QUALCOMM had morphed into a competitive OFDM merchant [Wi-Fi, Wimax and other efforts being other versions].
Now, here we are at the dawn of the 21st century. China has come through the night of a long accident and is at the threshold of a great new world.
They are stumbling at the start, going introspective and defensive with TD-SCDMA, as Japan did, to their great cost [albeit only opportunity cost], leaving the field clear for South Korean who went Gung Ho on CDMA way back in the early 1990s, making umpty $billions from global sales and benefitting at home.
You have a chance to help make China the best of the best, rather than copying Japan, which I'd have thought you would not think is the best place to copy - next you'll be sniffing undies and reading Yakusa manual.
Copying Japan's quality control would be a good idea. Copying their PHS ideology is not.
China has got a chance to make more money than has ever been made. Or, they can go with TD-SCDMA and be a failed also-ran.
The whole world needs OFDM in 450MHz [though they don't know it yet]. China needs it too. Nobody, outside the TD-SCDMA development bandwagon, needs that hybrid concoction of stolen intellectual property being foisted on China's serfs.
Go on, make that call!!
Mqurice |
