Nadine,
Look, back in '03-04 and maybe even '05, I don't recall, the military was telling us that they were only fighting about 5,000 active insurgents. I wrote back then how absurd that estimate was, it was based on nothing, and if he (Abizaid and Casey, probably others as well) just did some simple math, they would know it was absurd. But they kept insisting, even when they were asked by media people. Then it was in their interest to keep pretending that the numbers were low. Using Bush admin logic, if they kept saying it, and most American people believed it, it would, as Jean-Luc used to say, "make it so."
Now it is in their interest to build up AQI numbers. What fierce fighters they are. How ruthless. etc. Well, do the math again. No one, to my knowledge has even claimed at any time over the past few years that AQI amounted to much more than 1500 people. Well, let's suppose that that number is wildly off the mark. Let's suppose that, really, there are 10,000 AQI fighters. Now let's look at the number of Sunnis Anbar. I think I read recently that there were about 2-3 million people in Anbar, virtually all of them Sunni members of one tribe or another.
Now, let's go slowly--are you suggesting that 2-3 million cannot crush on their own 10,000 people? Can the 10,000 wreck some havoc and kill some people? Sure. Can they even have a few success? Possibly. Can they actually win, presuming that weaponry is approximately equal (and I would wager that the native Sunni weapons are both better and more abundant than the AQI stuff)? NO!!! Don't be ridiculous.
Now, let's take it one step further. Would it help the Sunni to have air support and even some Marines/US Army on their side? Will they mop up more quickly? YES!!! Of course they will.
And let's take yet one more step--is it in the interest of the Anbar Sunnis to make friends with the US at the current time, not only because they want to get rid of the AQI goons ASAP, but because they are looking ahead to a time when the Shia may be ruling them, and they want (a) as good a deal as they can get; (b) they minimally want a kind of independence from Shia rule that the Kurds already enjoy; and (c) they may even still harbor fantasies of a return to power even over the Shia, with the help of their new US friends--after, such help has been known to occur before, lol. And there would be no question that they, the Sunni, would never be partners with those Iranian Persian dog Shia. And we might add (d) they also minimally want some nice new weapons for whatever may come in the uncertain future of this tragic land that can never seem to get enough weapons or step out of endless cycles of vengeance. |
