And let's take yet one more step--is it in the interest of the Anbar Sunnis to make friends with the US at the current time, not only because they want to get rid of the AQI goons ASAP, but because they are looking ahead to a time when the Shia may be ruling them, and they want (a) as good a deal as they can get; (b) they minimally want a kind of independence from Shia rule that the Kurds already enjoy; and (c) they may even still harbor fantasies of a return to power even over the Shia, with the help of their new US friends--after, such help has been known to occur before, lol. And there would be no question that they, the Sunni, would never be partners with those Iranian Persian dog Shia. And we might add (d) they also minimally want some nice new weapons for whatever may come in the uncertain future of this tragic land that can never seem to get enough weapons or step out of endless cycles of vengeance.
We're not so far apart, I agree with this paragraph.
Now, let's go slowly--are you suggesting that 2-3 million cannot crush on their own 10,000 people? Can the 10,000 wreck some havoc and kill some people? Sure. Can they even have a few success? Possibly. Can they actually win, presuming that weaponry is approximately equal (and I would wager that the native Sunni weapons are both better and more abundant than the AQI stuff)? NO!!! Don't be ridiculous.
First, total population numbers are basically irrelevant when you're counting fighters. The urban Sunni of Baghdad and Baquba are of limited use in fighting Al Qaeda; al Qaeda mostly uses them as human sacrifices when attacking the Shia to foment the sectarian violence. However, we can assume that the Sunni have plenty of ex-army types who can be called on.
Secondly, what does "win" mean for Al Qaeda? They are terrorists, remember? As long as they can blow stuff up and get headlines, they think they are winning; they use the publicity to recruit more splodeydopes and explosives. If you notice their track record in Anbar, they are not shy about blowing up Sunnis with chlorine-laced bombs, as they have done several times this last year.
So they don't need to "win" in a military sense. That's not the mission of terrorists. Their mission is chaos, as Leo said, and it's a much lower target to keep sowing chaos. You don't need all the tribes on your side, just some of them. In the dog-eat-dog world of tribal politics, this can usually be arranged through some combination of bribery and coercion, if only by making the weakest tribe an offer it can't refuse.
So would the Sunnis be able to clear them out without the Marines there? Probably, eventually. But I'll tell you the function that the Marines perform for them, even more than bringing lethal firepower against Al Qaeda: they guard their backs from Shia attack. If the sectarian violence flared into full civil war, al Qaeda would have lots of room to maneuver. That's precisely and exactly why fomenting a civil war has been Al Qaeda's main strategy for the last two years. |
