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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (343453)	9/14/2007 6:16:26 AM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (2) of 436258

In keeping with that novelette I wrote back here Message 23849670 where I was musing about bank earnings, i.e. -- "So looking forward near term.....IMO the next logical shoe to drop will be conventional WS warnings and/or disclosures about the magnitude of reportable earnings losses in the financials due to the vaporization of their MBS/CDO/CLO/LBO fee income streams as well as their hedge fund losses. Hell, business has positively sucked lately, so they can't possibly be doing as well as they thought they would be when they last gave guidance. As of last Friday, Q3 is 2/3 over, and by now it should be as plain as day to any banker that they are not going to make their Q3 numbers -- some will fess up sooner than others, but they will all have to do it eventually, so I expect to start reading these types of announcements real soon......As an added reaction, these earnings warnings will (should?) also be accompanied by sharply reduced forecasts for the financial group's earnings going forward as well. And since financials make up the largest part of the SPX, we are talking about taking a lot of the E out of both the trailing and forward P/E -- and the buoyancy of E has been one of the two principal arguments cited by bulls that SPX 1500 is 'not overvalued'(the other being strong employment" Well, I found a new piece this morning re-raising this very same topic (pending Q3 bank earnings), so I killed two birds with one stone and also posted it over here for comments -- Message 23880163 Amazing that the market indexes continue to behave as if there is nothing wrong here. The amount of book cooking required to hide the damage would require Enron-scale deceit .

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