Jim,
I am a gloomy guy, and bearish arguments make a lot of sense to me. What bothers me is that the bearish case is so well advertised. Same arguments, time and again, and again, and again. Is there anybody left who hasn't heard about subprime, CDOs etc?
At the same time, at a more practical level,
1. Insiders' buying in August was at a record level, and is still strong.
2. According to Hulbert, 10 best market timers are 92% long, while 10 worst market timers are a little bit short (the data are about a week old).
3. Some sentiment indicators (in a broad sense) are through the roof (public short, COT, CBOE and ISE P/Cs etc).
Obviously, these bullish arguments are not new as well, but the more I hear about "subprime" on NPR, the more I like my chances on the long side... |
