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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout
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From: paul ross9/16/2007 9:36:40 AM
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As far as the housing market I don't think we'll see an overall crash. Some markets that went up precipitously are the most likely to decline the greatest amount, similar to 90-92 US housing market. But for the most part I think we are to see a great price inflation in US over the next 5-10 years with the dollar buying progressively less. Housing prices have just "got there" first. With a $1M bungalow and $10 loaf of bread being the norm. Wages, of course, being the last to adjust.

There will be housing markets that actually will have price appreciation over the next few years, as Dallas, Portland, OR, and the Charlotte- Chapel Hill NC corridor are doing right now. The key for those inclined to invest in RE is to identify those markets.

By graphing days-on-market, existing inventory, and median existing home sales price it's possible to see where each housing market is at a particular time (employment and population increase 2 other important factors). DOM being the fast moving indicator and median price being the slow moving. Its easy to pick a market bottom in this way. Unlike the chart of stocks which can fluctuate wildly, the housing market is usually relative slow to make its move and tends to trend rather smoothly. Also, sub markets of major cities can be analyzed, with some neighborhoods actually going up in value while others are flat or trending down. Though this analysis is a bit simplistic the principals hold.
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