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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (6449)9/18/2007 8:41:50 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) of 24225
 
Shortfalls in Russian oil deliveries to Germany
Vladimir Socor, Eurasia Daily Monitor (Jamestown Foundation)
Russian oil deliveries to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline fell abruptly in the month of August by some 30%. Lukoil is mainly responsible for the deliberate reduction in supplies that had been pre-contracted. Supply shortfalls had begun in July on a small scale, before the abrupt August drop. The German government and affected companies kept this development under tight wraps until the Sueddeutsche Zeitung broke the story in its August 24 issue. . .

. . .Once the story broke, Lukoil remained secretive about the reasons behind the reduction in supplies. According to one theory, Lukoil was seeking to squeeze an intermediary out of the Russo-German oil trade. . .

Other theories in German and Russian oil-trade circles hold that:

1) Lukoil’s cuts may seek to force up the price of supplies to Germany for the next contract period;

2) deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline became less profitable since Belarus raised the transit fee by 30%, to $3.6 per ton;

3) Russia’s state pipeline monopoly Transneft, operator of the Druzhba system on Russian territory, may have begun redirecting part of the flow from that pipeline toward Russian Baltic maritime export terminals;

4) Lukoil may be aiming to intimidate the German refineries’ owners into ceding share packages to it as a “guarantee” of steady supplies in the future; or

5) the Russian state itself is trying to demonstrate that supplies have become too tight to suffice for all customers and that only the politically favored ones can count on steady supplies from now on.

(5 September 2007)
Wikipedia: The Jamestown Foundation is a Washington-based think tank whose stated mission is to "inform and educate" policy makers about events and trends which it regards as being of current "strategic" importance to the United States. Its website claims that: “Jamestown’s material is delivered without political bias, filter or agenda.” However, given the tone of its articles, it could be claimed that the foundation usually takes a rather Western Cold War approach.http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372392
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