Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM)

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From: Icebrg	9/19/2007 2:59:25 AM
	of 3044

Birchenough's view: VISTA Positive, Impact Uncertain [Posted by microcapfun on the Yahoo board]. MLNM reported this morning that a planned interim analysis of its phase III VISTA trial had yielded statistically significant improvement in the primary endpoint of overall survival (OS) as well as secondary endpoints of complete response (CR) rate, time to progression (TTP) and progression free survival (PFS) with the addition of Velcade (V) to standard therapy with Melphalan + Prednisone (MP). Investment Conclusion We are maintaining our 2-Equal weight rating on shares of MLNM following this morning's positive data release from the phase III VISTA study of Velcade in frontline Multiple Myeloma. While a statistically significant improvement in overall survival (OS) should support continued use of Velcade in frontline setting we believe that data will be insufficient to position favorably against preferred oral agents Thalomid and Revlimid and expect market share to remain in the 10% range. Full results of the 682 patient randomized trial are expected to be presented at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting in December with a supplemental NDA filing targeted for 1Q08. While no details of the study were provided MLNM expressed confidence in reproducibility of prior phase I/II results which included a 43% rate of CR + near CR with 85% rate of 3-year survival. Assuming comparable results from VISTA we believe that differentiating Velcade benefit from a 96% 1-year survival rate with Revlimid will be difficult and that twice weekly infusions with Velcade will remain a barrier relative to daily oral therapy with iMIDs. We continue to believe that high CR rates with Velcade will niche the drug for 20% of frontline patients undergoing stem cell transplant (SCT) where relatively small market size and short course of therapy may limit commercial potential. Analyst Certification: We, Jim Birchenough, M.D., Ajim Tamboli, CFA and Charles J. Whitesell, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research Company Note accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Company Note and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Company Note. Company Description: Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. engages in the research, development, and commercialization of therapeutic products in the areas of cancer and inflammatory diseases in the United States and Europe. It offers Velcade, a proteasome inhibitor for treating patients with multiple myeloma. Valuation Methodology: We arrive at our $10/share price target by applying a 6x forward revenue multiple to 2008 estimated revenues of $477mln. We believe that a 6x multiple on total revenues balances lower product growth prospects with higher royalty revenue margins and is in-line with treatment afforded profitable biotechnology

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