Sorry to mix threads on you. Just realized. It really was in response to your bullish stance on gold, basic materials, international ect. on your thread. your view of retail cant live in a vaccuum.
"I'm not claiming that people stop buying stuff. I am simply pointing out that it is a certainty that they will be buying LESS stuff"
Doesnt change my other comment, less need for raw materials and energy and probably gold for that matter. nobody making out here, Intl is not a place to hide.
" and will be far more price sensitive."
So I guess "no inflation" isnt going to help gold.
"
When you think about it, you can deduce why the big box strip mall retailers (think Best Buy, Barnes and Noble, etc.) are having trouble. They grow by duplicating themselves, building more and more boxes...creating more capacity."
wasnt commenting on your retail call. In fact you and I agree for the most part.
"Well - we're now at a point where we have too much capacity, coupled with rising inflation "
Look at that sentence really hard........ECON....not possible Without wages rising drastically. Your making a once a century call (and im not really sure its that often). Hardly worth putting any real money with those odds.
" near shutoff of what was once a massive income stream - consumers flush with cash from mortgage equity withdrawals."
Recession, recession, recession. Thats your call (it seems). Raw materials drop, energy drop, inflation drop, gold drop, competition up, retail destroyed. A more normal yield curve makes long bonds a tough buy. New adminstration makes drugs a tough buy. Foods I think ADM, MON, CAG, your commodies market......INTL I dont think so. Maybe the dollar would bail you out. |
