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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (86752)	9/22/2007 12:12:03 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) of 110194

1. research.stlouisfed.org research.stlouisfed.org Interesting choice of years. Doesn't go to the market top in 2001. BUT: tell me (particularly from the first graph) that you can see a difference in inflation (that's CPI you're looking at) between inflation between 195-9 and any other years between 1985 and now. Starting about 1999 (funny how you chose that as the end) the inflation rate swings become wider a situation that has continued to the present. 2. Here's the Dow 1995-2000 (sorry, we're not not going to chery-pick the data!). finance.yahoo.com^dji;range=19940702,20001230;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined Here's the Doe 1984-present. Youu can see some increase between 1995-2001, but not enormous. 3. The NAZ is more pronounced- -but most of the increase, and the sharpest increase- -occurs OUTSIDE of your time range- -1998-2001. 4. Here's money supply 1990-2001. See a connection with that sharp rise? %. A longer graph of Money supply: research.stlouisfed.org research.stlouisfed.org research.stlouisfed.org M3 was discontinued in 2005. See a connection between increases in money stock and the stock market? Bill, Newt and Robert aren't geniuses; they just opened the tap wider. Another interesting chart: research.stlouisfed.org The years you cite were part of a bubble. Anyone who can't recognize the characteristics of a bubble should either read and learn or get out of the market. They are the poker player sitting at the table who can't figure out who the sucker is. If you want to make this poloititical, we can make it political, but I doubt you will like the results. If you want to stick to economics, we can do that too.

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