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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (344166)9/22/2007 6:24:50 PM
From: stan_hughes  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
In many respects, no, it won't help whatsoever -- but not because you can't learn from history, but only because history has never seen a derivatives meltdown of the size and scope of the one we're staring at.

Having said that, I still think that a lot of the human response mechanisms we'll see come into play when the shit hits the fan are unlikely to be any different than they were 500 years ago -- homo sapiens may be smarter in his financial schemes, but on an emotional level I expect to see all manner of atavistic behavior.

Allowing myself a prediction, IMO the American psyche is more prone to quickly accelerate into a downside panic once it starts to lose faith in its Omnipotent Fed (unlike after the 1990 Japanese top, which in contrast has manifested itself as 17 years of stoic, slow-tortured denial that might not even really be over yet).

People might think me an abject pessimist for expressing that view about the US going forward, but I'm actually being optimistic about the future with that scenario, given that I think things would get better quicker if we would only wring out the excesses and let the insolvents go bankrupt like they should, i.e. "it's time to thin the herd"
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