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Technology Stocks : Ballard Power -world leader zero-emission PEM fuel cells
BLDP 2.625-2.8%3:59 PM EST

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To: Elwood who wrote (989)10/8/1997 3:30:00 PM
From: Maxwell   of 5827
 
Elwood:

I still can't find your Misc Tech category, subject Global Warming thread. Please point it to me how to get there. Thanks for showing me this thread. I've been interested in this subject for a long time but yet know a company that works on it. Here is my thought on BLDPF.

1) First you talked about Global Warming. Global warming is due to the effect that we are producing more CO2 than the trees and plants can consume. Thus the biosphere is disrupted and the sheath of CO2 is building up which trap the heat below the atmosphere.

CO2 excess is largely due to the by product of combustion. In the fuel cell, methanol is converted to hydrogen and CO2. Thus CO2 is still produced. The only difference is the amount. The fuel cell probably emits less CO2 than the octane combustion just because the efficiency of the fuel cell is better than the combustion engine. Thus for the same amount of horsepower desired by the driver the fuel cell will produce less CO2 which in essence reduces the effect of global warming.

2) I like this technology alot and wishes it would replaced all the combustion engines but there will be alot of struggles along the way. The reasons are as followed:

a) This fuel cell may not be as cost effective as the combustion. It will be more expensive to incorporate this system into conventional cars. Thus people may not want to pay the price unless federal regulations forbid people to buy combustion cars.

b) Fuel cell cars will be used mainly in normal daily driving. High performance car will remain combustion. There is no way fuel cell car can outperform combustion cars in term of horsepower.

c) Oil industry will fight this project furiously. Don't underestimate their influences.

d) No infrastructure for fuel cell car. Every gas station would have to have a pump to serve methanol. It would take a while.

e) Reliability of the system is yet to be tested.

3) What about the stock price?

Well the company is yet to make any money. Last year they losed $.94 and this year they espected to loose $1.04. The stock has doubled in 10 months due to increased exposure and hype. Investors will get wearied as the company continues to post loss. There is no timeframe in the horizon when the company will be profitable and there is no guaranteed that this technology will be the standard. You are buying "blue sky" here. Had you bought it last year at $10 it would have been a spectacular speculative investment. Now it is $47 and is very expensive. In my opinion, this technology will be AT BEST be a niche technology where it would be incorporated in city buses and cars for the people who are classified as "Save the Earth". And that would be at least another 5 years away. I can guarantee you that companies such as WSTL/Amati who make ADSL and Rambus who makes high speed memory will make money before BLDPF. Good luck on your investment and becareful when the analysts are out of favor with BLDPF.

Maxwell

PS. By the way, you may wonder about all this partnership with Toyota, Mercedes, etc. and whether this is a good sign with great future for BLDPF. The answer is no. Those companies just cover their butts. They want to cover all their basis so that no competitors would flank them with an popular and innovative product.
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