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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer
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To: Kirk © who wrote (1148)9/24/2007 3:01:54 PM
From: Math JunkieRead Replies (1) of 2121
 
"Why should they have expected any more success from whatever model Brinker claimed to be using than the model that failed for the QQQQs that he said would rally 'up to 50% or more' well into 2001?"

Mainly because in the fifteen years it had existed (as of early 2003), whatever methodology he had been referring to as his "model" had only once been bullish when it should have been bearish, and in that case the market recovered quickly and strongly. In contrast, whatever methodology he used for the QQQQ buys was a total disaster.

One wonders why some people don't/didn't attach more significance to the differences in track record of the two methodologies.

I agree that expectations of a secular bear may have kept some people from re-entering the market in 2003, but what conclusion should we draw now, four years later? What we have now is another four years of evidence to support being fully invested when his model is bullish, regardless of anything else he says.
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