CC, I agree the Grizzly Oil Sands presentation provides realistic information on oil sand production, mining prospectus, financing, project schedules, land costs, oil API, and capex estimates, and phasing for implementation of their plan.
grizzlyoilsands.com
Grizzly represents approximately $28,000 in capex cost, for "flowing" daily barrel of bitumen which is consistent with capex projections for bitumen production in publications I've read from Alberta's energy department.
Canadian Oil Sands COS.UN represents $80,000 capex for daily flowing barrel of Syncrude. Peace River bitumen sells for $27 / bbl and COS sells Sycrude for $78 / bbl, so there's a proportional difference in revenue projections and capex.
Gulf Port Energy GPOR has $2 million in cash on their balance sheet, although the other partners may have the needed financing. Realistic Capex on a 40,000 bopd bitumen operation is a big number. Hell, you could almost acquire Baytex for that amount.
Baytex Energy’s heavy oil operations utilizing standard drilling and production are somewhere in-between 38 API sweet crude and 7 -12 API bitumen from oil sands. BTE sells 20,000 bbl/d of heavy oil from Alberta, to Frontier’s refinery in Cheyenne, Wyoming at $50 bbl for a good profit. On the downside, Baytex, has one of the highest production costs (low netbacks) in the Canroy group, which is typical of heavy oil production.
Baytex also mines Peace River bitumen which they sell for $27 bbl. Netbacks on bitumen mining operations are even lower, if the profit on bitumen production were better, you'd see Baytex and Penn West producing more bitumen. I like Baytex because they can fund capex for oil sand operations from existing cash flow on 38,000 boepd, and have experience with heavy oil.
Baytex has two billion bbls of (un) discovered oil resources (bitumen), of which 200 mmbbls are recoverable, and a measly 13 mmbbls is booked as 2P reserves. Baytex Energy's 38,000 boep in daily production, 10% dividend, and 2 billion barrels of (un)discovered resources are valued at $1.6 billion. The market gives little reserve value to BTE’s two billion barrels of bitumen resources, which ain’t right.
Meanwhile, Penn West acquires Vault Energy for $20,000 / boepd, Prime West acquires Shinging Bank for $50,000 boepd, and TAQA acquires PrimeWest for $80,000 / boepd.
After you get all those oil sand companies figured out, let us know the best one.
archi
PS- Prime West's vote on their companies future alternatives to Flaherty’s tax regime – priceless. Cheers! |
